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How Terrorist Groups ended

How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa'ida - Martin C. Libicki, Seth G. Jones

This book is now available online for free.

 

It is good to know how real terrorist groups ended and how we could help to make more terrorist groups to come to its end. 

 

Start reading. 

"the history of terrorist groups since 1968 and argues that terrorist groups usually end for two major reasons: They decide to adopt nonviolent tactics and join the political process, or local law-enforcement agencies arrest or kill key members of the group. Military force has rarely been the primary reason that terrorist groups end, and, since 1968, few groups have ended by achieving victory. This suggests that, where terrorist groups cannot or will not make a transition to nonviolence, policing is usually most effective in defeating terrorist groups." 

OK. Terrorist groups use non violence tactics or be killed. 

 

"How Groups End There are at least five major ways in which terrorist groups end: policing, military force, splintering, politics, or victory.1 Other tools may also be useful: providing economic aid to countries dealing with terrorism, imposing economic sanctions on states that harbor terrorist groups, dissuading groups by hardening targets, improving intelligence, or engaging in diplomacy.2 But these are too weak to be used in a leading role. In practice, terrorist groups typically end due to a combination of factors."

Five major ways terrorist groups ended.

1. Policing 40%

2. Military force 7%

3. Splintering

4. Politicization 43%

5. Victory 10%

"A large number of groups also end by splintering, but their members continue to pursue terrorism by joining an existing group or creating a new one. Since terrorism continues, we focus only on those cases in which a terrorist group ends and most of its members stop using terrorism as a tactic.."

Splintering is good, but terrorists didn't stop being terrorists but moved on to join or form new groups. 

 

"Of the 268 complete endings, the major share came from politics (43 percent) and policing (40 percent), with victory (10 percent) and military force (7 percent) far more the exception rather than the rule. Digging behind these numbers suggests, however, that terrorist groups differ in complex and revealing ways: (1) Religious terrorist groups are different from those otherwise classified, (2) terrorist groups in high-income countries are different from those in less-developed countries, and (3) large terrorist groups are different from small terrorist groups. In . addition, terrorist groups capable of conducting an insurgency require different treatment from that given to terrorist groups that do not rise to the level of insurgents."